2012 Leonard Cohen Tour Probability Meter Raised To High

Update 26 March 2012: It’s Official – 2012 Leonard Cohen Old Ideas World Tour Schedule

Everybody Knows That The Dice Are Loaded

Following yesterday’s post, Siri – Will Leonard Cohen Tour In 2012?, Heck Of A Guy received two interesting emails – both of which offered information about the prospects of a Leonard Cohen Tour in 2012 contingent on the sources remaining anonymous. Both individuals are known to have a significant degree of access to those working with Leonard Cohen and to Leonard Cohen himself.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of  the two messages is that they were remarkably similar in tone and content: each email casually, unambiguously, and matter-of-factly stated that, barring unforeseen circumstances (e.g., health problems),  there will be a Leonard Cohen Tour in 2012.

On The Other Hand

Now, such information may be simply  inaccurate or no more than braggadocio on the part of someone attempting to claim insider status. Nonetheless, it is striking that these two congruent emails are also consistent with, if more explicit than, the stories told by several independent contacts over the past three months.

All this falls far short of a guarantee, and, even if the decision has been made to go on tour (and it has), a long list of legal and economic obstacles must be surmounted before a tour becomes a reality. Further, the 2008-2010 Leonard Cohen World Tour was triggered by Cohen’s self-professed desperate need for money following the loss of his retirement fund through embezzlement. From all appearances, financial need is not currently a motivator. Perhaps that fact is enough to tip the scales such that Leonard Cohen will decide that his overall benefit from embarking on another tour falls on the wrong side the diminishing returns equation. Or maybe Leonard will turn down the chance to tour, opting instead to buy a Winnebago with a “I’m spending my kids’ inheritance” bumper sticker, move to Florida, don checked pants with a white belt suspended two inches beneath his armpits, and scout out the best early bird dinner specials.

In Conclusion

Nonetheless, I figure there is something to it – or this is an especially well done hoax – so I am today changing the Heck Of A Guy 2012 Leonard Cohen Tour Probability Meter¹ from Denied But Likely to High.

Update 07 January 2012:  See Read Latest On Leonard Cohen 2012 Tour Prospects Now

Other Posts About The 2012 Leonard Cohen Tour:

• More About Possible 2012 Leonard Cohen Tour – The Montreux Mystery
• Leonard Cohen Tour In 2012? Javier Mas On Finishing New Cohen Album & Touring Next Year

1. For more about this instrument, see The 2012 Leonard Cohen Tour Probability Meter. [↩]